Abstract: To predict the microbiological analysis of raw milk stored at low temperature in autumn. The Gompertz model was used to establish the growth kinetic model of total colony and psychrophilic in raw milk in the autumn raw milk stored in 4 ~ 14 ℃.The model could effectively simulate the growth of microorganisms in raw milk in autumn,and the correlation coefficient of the model was higher than 0.972,which could be used to predict the growth of microorganisms and the time to reach the control limit.The study showed that psychrophile was the main microorganism among raw milk stored at low temperature. It was good while the store temperature was between4~8 ℃( R²= 0.931). The number of the bacteria could be calculated by the total number of bacteria,which could ensure the quality of dairy products.