Abstract: To study quality changes and prediction model for shelf life of Crucian carp in the food logistics process, Sensory evaluation, total-volatile basic nitrogen (TVB-N) value, total viable count (TVC) , thiobarbituric acid (TBA) and K value were accessed to investigate the relation between the shelf-life and temperature at different storage temperatures (273, 279, 282, 285, 291K) . Through analyzing the chemical kinetics of quality, it was conclued that kinetic analyses were proposed that zero-order law was more appropriate than first-order reaction kinetics to describe quality change of Crucian carp. Nonlinear fitting of active energy (Ea) , frequency coefficient (A0) and temperature T based on Arrhenius law was also studied, from which active energy Eaand frequency coefficient A0 of TVB-N, TVC, TBA and K value were 77.68kJ/mol and 4.590×1014, 99.64kJ/mol and1.790 ×1018, 83.78kJ/mol and 1.146 ×1014, and 104.4kJ/mol and 2.219 ×1020, respectively. The results indicated that the evaluation of sensory quality decresed with storage time and increasing temperature, TVB-N, TVC, TBA and K value increased with the increasing of storage time and temperature, and much faster in later storage period. The relative error between the predicted by the model for the shelf life of Crucian carp and the observed shelf-life stored at 282 K was within ±5%. The freshness and remaining shelf life of Crucian carp could be predicted at the storage temperature from 273~291K based on TVB-N, TVC, TBA and K value. Meanwhile, It could also provide some references for shelf life prediction for other aquatic product.