中国地区干酪生物胺风险评估中膳食暴露评估模型的构建
Probability estimate modeling of risk assessment on dietary exposure to biogenic amines via cheeses in China
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摘要: 基于对中国地区市售97份干酪样品获得的8种生物胺检测数据,以及2002年中国居民营养与健康状况调查报告中的膳食消费数据,采用Monte Carlo模拟和@Risk软件量化人群干酪生物胺膳食暴露量的变异度和不确定度,构建中国地区干酪生物胺风险评估中膳食暴露评估模型。按不同地区、性别和年龄段差异的人群,分析其干酪生物胺膳食暴露量分布的统计量和90%置信区间。评估结果显示,中国城市人群的干酪生物胺暴露量明显高于同年龄段的农村人群;且城市地区女性暴露量通常高于男性,而农村地区则相反。干酪生物胺膳食暴露概率评估方法相比点评估和简单分布评估方法,能够定量评估结果的变异度和不确定度,评估更为准确。Abstract: Based on the analysis data of 8 kinds of biogenic amines (BAs) in 97 commercial cheese samples from China, and according to the dietary consumption data in the China National Nutrition and Health Survey reports in 2002, a probability assessment model was built using Monte Carlo simulation and @ Risk program.In the model, dietary BAs exposure distributions were constructed in populations of different regions, ages and sexual, with quartiles and 90% confidence intervals of corresponding statistics calculated respectively.The results showed that the dietary exposure to BAs via cheeses of urban population was obviously higher than that of rural population in China.And the female exposure tended to be higher than that of male in cities, while the case was on the contrary in rural areas.Compared to point estimate and simple distribution estimate, probability assessment was more accurate in variability and uncertainty in quality risk assessment methods.
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